Statistics and Illusion

“Resemblances of reality to illusion are not susceptible to mathematical interference or rational inferences.”- C. Jung


“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli, as reported by Mark Twain.

Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence. -Manly’s Maxim.

If you have not had a good laugh lately, please look at these three scholarly documents from the banking crisis:

Financial Stability Forum (2008): Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience,

Report to the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (April).

Greenlaw, D, J Hatzius, A K Kashyap and H S Shin (2008): Leveraged Losses:

Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown. Report prepared for the US Monetary

Policy Forum (February).

Brunnermeier, M K and L H Pedersen (2007): “Market liquidity and funding liquidity”, NBER Working Paper 12939 (February).

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